Study: Dunbar’s number is wrong. You can have more than 150 friends (2024)

Since 1992, people have been talking about “Dunbar’s number,” the supposed upper limit of the number of people with whom a person can maintain stable social relationships. Named for British anthropologist Robin Dunbar, its value, rounded from 148 to 150, has permeated both professional and popular culture.

The Swedish taxation authority keeps offices under 150 people as a result of it, and the standard facilities of the W. L. Gore and Associates company are based around the concept. Dunbar’s number was cited in Malcolm Gladwell’s bestselling book Tipping Point, and it also has a fair amount of academic influence, the original paper having been cited 2,500 times.

It’s also probably wrong.

Despite its fame, Dunbar’s number has always been controversial. A newstudy out of Sweden and published in the journal Biology Letters suggests it might be both theoretically and empirically unsound.

Getting to 150

Less well known than the value of Dunbar’s number is how he came up with it. The value of 150 is determined by looking at the ratio between the size of the neocortex in primates and the average size of groups they form. These ratios were then applied to data on the human brain, and the average value of roughly 150 relationships was determined.

The point of this study isn’t to replace Dunbar’s number but to dismiss the notion that such a number can be determined in the first place.

However, this number has always been the subject of debate. An alternative value based on empirical studies of American social groups is a much higher 291, nearly double that of Dunbar, and suggests that the median social network has 231 people in it. That value wasn’t calculated by crunching other numbers; it kept coming up again and again when the authors of that study looked at the professional and social networks cultivated by different groups of people.

Yet, even in the face of critics and new studies, Dunbar’s number always managed to hang on in popular and academic discourse. That is where this latest study comes in.

A new study with old methods but better data

In the new study, the researchers did similar calculations as Dunbar but with updated information on the size of monkey brains and social networks. While their average human group size was below Dunbar’s estimate, the upper boundary of the 95 percent confidence interval ranged between 2 and 520 people depending on what methods were used. Nearly every method gave a range of possibilities with a maximum value higher than 150.

When the authors applied Dunbar’s exact same methods from 1992 to their new data, they got an average group size of 69 people — but a 95% confidence interval between roughly 5 and 292. This is far too wide a range to be of any use.

Additionally, the authors discuss the flimsy nature of the theory behind Dunbar’s number. Human brains often work differently than those of our nearest evolutionary cousins, as evidenced by our ability to create things like, “Stockholm, symphonies, and science.” The idea that we would process social information exactly like other apes do is a bold and largely unsubstantiated claim.

They quote a study by Jan De Ruiter and their rejection of the idea that the ratio between monkey neocortex size and group composition can be carried over to humans:

“Dunbar’s assumption that the evolution of human brain physiology corresponds with a limit in our capacity to maintain relationships ignores the cultural mechanisms, practices, and social structures that humans develop to counter potential deficiencies”

So, is there a new Dunbar number?

The point of this study isn’t to replace Dunbar’s number but to dismiss the notion that such a number can be determined in the first place. The authors go so far as to end their paper with:

“It is our hope, though perhaps futile, that this study will put an end to the use of ‘Dunbar’s number’ within science and in popular media. ‘Dunbar’s number’ is a concept with limited theoretical foundation lacking empirical support.”

While this study may not be the death of Dunbar’s number — after all, less empirically sound ideas have endured muchlonger — it may be the foundation for new attempts to determine how large our meaningful and stable social groups can be.

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Study: Dunbar’s number is wrong. You can have more than 150 friends (2024)

FAQs

What is the Dunbar 150 theory? ›

'Dunbar's number' is the notion that there exists a cognitive limit on human groups of about 150 individuals. [1,2] This because '[t]o maintain group cohesion, individuals must be able to meet their own requirements, as well as coordinate their behaviour with other individuals in the group.

How many friends can you have Dunbar's number? ›

By using the average human brain size and extrapolating from the results of primates, he proposed that humans can comfortably maintain 150 stable relationships. There is some evidence that brain structure predicts the number of friends one has, though causality remains to be seen.

What is the 150 person rule? ›

An individual human can maintain stable social relationships with about 150 people, not more. This is the proposition known as 'Dunbar's number' - that the architecture of the human brain sets an upper limit on our social lives.

How many friends should you have Dunbar? ›

According to British anthropologist Robin Dunbar, the “magic number” is 150. Dunbar became convinced that there was a ratio between brain sizes and group sizes through his studies of non-human primates.

How accurate is Dunbar's number? ›

Dunbar's number is a popular estimate for the maximum size of social groups. But new research suggests that it's a fictitious number based on flimsy data and bad theory.

What is the Dunbar's number rule? ›

Dunbar suggested that a maximum group size of 150, which he found represented in natural-forming groups all over the world in different domains and cultures – from tribes to military units – is a function of neocortex size in the primate brain.

What is the rule of 150? ›

The Rule of 150, or Dunbar's Number is a suggestion that there is an upper limit to the number of connections humans can make before communication and relationships break down. As a company scales and grows it becomes increasingly tricky to maintain good communication and connections between people and teams.

Is there a friend limit? ›

According to Robin Dunbar, an Oxford University professor and author of the book, “Friends: Understanding the Power of Our Most Important Relationships,” the portion of the human brain known as the neocortex can only handle a social circle of about 150 people at any given time — or even fewer.

What is the rule of three Dunbar? ›

Dunbar left room for nuance in his theory. He used a “rule of three” formula to describe how the closeness of our relationships can be viewed through multiples of three. Of the 150 people you have a relationship with, you might have a smaller circle of about 50 people who are close friends or family.

What is the tipping point rule of 150? ›

(For those unfamiliar, The Rule of 150 was coined by British Anthropologist, Robin Dunbar, and is defined as the “suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships and thus numbers larger than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms ...

What is a Dunbar's number in business? ›

Dunbar's number is 150 – the ideal size of a group in which the members work well together.

What is the 150 Dunbar number? ›

The community level of organisation turned out to be almost exactly 150. Thus was born the “social brain hypothesis” and “Dunbar's number”, the former referring to the relationship between group size and brain size in primates and the latter referring to the natural group size of about 150 for humans.

What is Dunbar's number simplified? ›

Dunbar's Number (c. 150), is interpreted as the upper limit on the number of social relationships a human can effectively manage. This implies that teams of more than 150 will not effectively function without an imposed social structure (e.g. a hierarchy).

What is the range of Dunbar's number? ›

Also known as 'The Rule of 150', this has become the main takeaway for most. However, Dunbar actually discussed a range of 100 to 200 as an optimum number of meaningful relationships and put forward a series of nested numbers beyond that: 1 or 2 special friends. 5 close friends.

What is the Dunbar language theory? ›

Dunbar argues that as humans began living in increasingly larger social groups, the task of manually grooming all one's friends and acquaintances became so time-consuming as to be unaffordable. In response to this problem, Dunbar argues that humans invented 'a cheap and ultra-efficient form of grooming'—vocal grooming.

What is the Dunbar relationship theory? ›

An anthropologist and evolutionary psychologist, Dunbar's fame largely focuses around a single number; 150. The theory of Dunbar's Number posits that 150 is the number of individuals with whom any one person can maintain stable relationships. The genesis of Dunbar's theory was a man by the name of Bill Gore.

What is the Dunbar's social network theory? ›

Dunbar's Number is a theory proposed by anthropologist Robin Dunbar, who suggests that there is a cognitive limit to the number of individuals with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. According to Dunbar, this number ranges between 100 and 250, with the average being around 150.

What is the Dunbar method? ›

Dunbar focused on verbally cuing and creatively luring to achieve desirable behavior and using “life rewards”— sniffing, walking, play with dogs, and interactive games — to reinforce speedy compliance and good habits from the outset.

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